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Unbiased Macro driven research and quarterly summary on what is driving key markets…

4Q 2023 Recap & 1Q 2024 Outlook

Financial markets underwent a sizeable shift in the fourth quarter. Treasury yields, which spiked in Q3, reversed lower as inflation eased and the Federal Reserve hinted at interest rate cuts in 2024

S&P 500 Registers its Biggest Monthly Gain Since July 2022

Stocks Trade Higher as Treasury Yields Reverse Lower

The big story during November was the decline in Treasury yields. The bond market experienced large moves in interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.36% from over 5% in October. For context, the -0.54% decline in the 10-year yield ranks among the biggest 1-month drops since December 2008, when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by -0.75%. Falling Treasury yields provided relief to bonds, which have traded lower as the Federal Reserve hikes rates. The Bloomberg U.S. Bond Aggregate Index, which tracks a broad index of U.S. bonds, produced a +4.6% total return. It was the index’s first gain in seven months and its biggest gain since 1985.

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