Mag 7 and FOMC showdown
The chief macro event risk at the moment relates to the Fed—the impact of this week’s meeting will likely come more from the statement and press conference than the rate decision itself. Will policymakers emphasize sticky inflation, oil-driven price risk, still-resilient growth, or any opening for future rate cuts?
April brings no showers
U.S. equity indices rallied sharply for a third straight week as Middle East tensions rapidly deescalated. Iran’s statement that the Strait of Hormuz was open for commercial shipping during
the ceasefire window throttled risk on across all asset classes on Friday. Oil prices fell over $10 per barrel on Friday alone, helping to ease inflation fears across the globe.
Deal or no deal – Iran’s ‘Ultimatum’
U.S. equity indices sold off sharply at week’s end amid little tangible progress toward ending the war in Iran. The Nasdaq Composite index lost more than 3% while the S&P500 slid 2%. The Russell 2000 fared better, rising marginally.
Oil still in the driver’s seat
U.S. equity indices sold off sharply at week’s end amid little tangible progress toward ending the war in Iran. The Nasdaq Composite index lost more than 3% while the S&P500 slid 2%. The Russell 2000 fared better, rising marginally.
Further rate cuts on hold
U.S. equity indices fell for a fourth straight week as the Iran war continued to roil energy markets and further clouded the outlook for inflation and interest rates. The spread between Brent crude—
the global benchmark—and U.S.-based West Texas Intermediate crude widened to the largest gap in 11 years as the risk of Brent supply disruptions increased while releases from U.S. strategic reserves kept domestic prices relatively in check.
FOMC, March OPEX, Oil, & Iran
Escalations in the Middle East conflict raised fears regarding the largest potential oil supply disruption in history. During the week, crude oil soared to $119.50, then plunged below $77 before again ascending to nearly $99. It ended the week higher by 8% despite the International Energy Agency’s largest-ever release of 400 million barrels to try to reign in prices.
Iran, CPI on radar this week
The conflict raging across the Middle East spiked oil prices to the highest level in more than two years, pressuring risk assets across the globe. U.S. equity indices held up better than their international counterparts, with the Nasdaq Composite down just over 1% while the S&P500 fell 2%.
Energy & Markets On Edge
U.S. equity indices fell after a hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation report while technology stocks came under pressure following Nvidia’s earnings report. The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 indices lost around 1%, reversing gains made earlier in the week.
Supreme Court decision strike down
U.S. equity indices gained ground as investors sorted through a slew of economic reports while also weighing the implications of Friday’s Supreme Court decision to strike down President Trump’s sweeping tariffs. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.5%, while the S&P500 gained 1% and Russell 2000 added 0.6%.
Volatility hitting risk assets
A sharp three-day selloff hit risk assets as investors reassessed some of the potential economic impacts from artificial intelligence adoption. The Nasdaq Composite index bounced back more
than 2% on Friday but still ended the week lower by 1.8%, while the S&P500 was flat.
